Read the rest of this article on FanGraphs. Fine, call the Blue… oh, wait! According to his FanGraphs profile page, he has relied on his fastball and slider about 75% of the time this season. As it stands, Thor is expected to return to … Team: New York Mets (majors, 60-day IL) Born: August 29, 1992 in Mansfield, TX us Draft: Drafted by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 1st round (38th) of the 2010 MLB June Amateur Draft from Legacy HS (Mansfield, TX).. High School: Legacy HS (Mansfield, TX) An exceptional delivery and build helped Noah Syndergaard throw the fastest average fastball last year for a major league starter: 97.9 m.p.h. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. According to FanGraphs, Syndergaard, 24, averaged the highest velocity among big-league starting pitchers with his fastball (98.0 mph), slider (90.9 mph) and changeup (89.8 mph) in 2016. Syndergaard is a fantastic rebound candidate, and trading him at the moment would be selling low given that other teams may try to point out his 4.28 2019 ERA. The Yankees’ Deivi Garcia is a step below the players above; Syndergaard would be a steal for the Yankees if Garcia was the top player in a deal going across town. Syndergaard is a very good pitcher and a better defense alone would be enough to get him much better results on the run-prevention side. Median $15.00, Roster% Conclusion. He missed most of 2017 with a torn right lat muscle. Simply put, the Mets infield defense is very bad and has been very bad throughout the right-hander’s career: A .315 career BABIP, and and the lower FIP than ERA, could be an indicator that Syndergaard gives up hard contact. In terms of present value, the above players are each worth about $46 million. The difference between his xwOBA and wOBA this season is particularly large and matches up with the difference between his FIP at 3.64, which says he’s one of the 20 best pitchers in the game, and his ERA at 4.33, which says he’s slightly below average. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Excluding his walk rate, Syndergaard's sinker either comes in last or is tied for last in every category listed. MLB Lead Writer July 23, 2019 ... FanGraphs and Baseball Savant. Rumors had, specifically, Noah Syndergaard switching teams but that is “off the table,” per reports. Median $17.00, All Leagues It's Time for Noah Syndergaard to Be First Yankees-Mets Blockbuster Trade Ever Zachary D. Rymer @ zachrymer. Is there some reason they should have to accept a lesser offer, or that teams should expect them to accept a lesser offer? Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted The velocity of his slider has been inconsistent all season and while the recent starts aren’t vintage low-90s slider Syndergaard, they are considerably better than the middle part of the season: May 30, 2016. Stro had half or maybe even less of Thor’s current value. Position: Pitcher Bats: Left • Throws: Right 6-6, 242lb (198cm, 109kg) . So while Syndergaard might improve some from lessening the usage of his sinker, and it should help his strikeout rate, the effect on his ERA likely won’t be as dramatic as simply having a good defense. Noah Syndergaard’s value. Mets pitcher Noah Syndergaard is already perhaps the hardest throwing pitcher in Major League Baseball. For the sake of simplicity we will just use the numbers above. FanGraphs projected the Mets to have the second-best rotation in baseball per fWAR, with a healthy Syndergaard’s 4.6 fWAR bested only by deGrom (6.1). The Rays, Braves, and Cardinals present other options. #Mets https://t.co/k8KR207Q1c. Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High Fangraphs.com URL; 28: Majors: SP: High: 1.0: 28.6: 9.7: 18.9: 15.1: 18.9: 22.6 That ask of a Top-30 prospect made a lot more sense before the Mets, ironically, set the market for the 2nd best pitcher (behind Syndergaard) at two FV45s. 2022 Projected Positions The Mets’ reported ask in a Syndergaard trade — a top-30 prospect plus a couple other pieces — is a reasonable one. Seems like the Mets are in the position to ask for what they want and hold on to Syndergaard unless they get something that is worth moving him. Is that return reasonable? The trade package necessary to land Syndergaard should be significantly richer than the one the Mets gave up for Stroman, given Syndergaard’s relative track record, age, and the extra season of team control through 2021. Fangraphs Fangraphs. Perhaps it’s more easily noticeable on the heatmaps, but he has done a better job in his last three starts of keeping the fastball out of the meatier part of the strike zone. They don’t want to part with him for Thor, regardless of other deals. Everything Is Terrible, Noah Syndergaard Edition. This season, Syndergaard’s FIP is very good, but his ERA is not. And here were the Pre-season rankings for the Astros prospects. Mostly just because everything is pegged to “comps” in trades. 7Day by Handedness, Lucas Giolito’s Rough July Was Just a Blip. Baseball, like the world around it, has been flooded with bad news for the last couple of weeks. The player graphs are now much more interactive and have been updated to feature some of the most popular and commonly used advanced stats on FanGraphs, such as WAR, wRC+, wOBA, OPS and FIP. He may not have peaked. The same would be true for the Padres and Manuel Margot given his mediocre performance and three more seasons of team control while earning arbitration salaries. Syndergaard made adjustments to his slider under new pitching coach Phil Regan, including moving his feet closer together, what Regan called “a more balanced position.” Here’s his slider in the first half: Now here’s his slider in the second half: While the feet being closer together isn’t something easy to see, Syndergaard’s glove does start at a higher position. I don’t think it’s correct, but it definitely sets a precedent that some teams could try to exploit. Syndergaard’s improved slider provides some hope that his strikeout rate from the first half will go up independent of any tweaks a new team might make. Impression is that trading for Noah Syndergaard would require a top 30 prospect and a couple of other solid pieces, one rival exec said earlier today. April 2, 2020. The Statcast numbers tend to disagree: Syndergaard has been tormented by groundballs, and given that he’s a groundball pitcher with a 49% ground ball rate for his career, including 48% this season, a poor defense can be particularly cruel to his BABIP and helps explain the difference between his FIP and ERA. I think that the Mets should absolutely keep Syndergaard if they don’t get what they want, but I also thought they should keep Syndergaard no matter what. Syndergaard is a very good pitcher right now and could make a huge impact for just about any team over the next two-plus seasons. 0. Noah Syndergaard. (nobody cares what the sadtrombone thinks, episode 253). Don’t like the request? Syndergaard’s improved slider provides some hope that his strikeout rate from the first half will go up independent of any tweaks a new team might make. We’ll also put in a discount rate of 8% per future season to determine a present-day value of Syndergaard’s services. Change Jordan Hicks; Kirby Yates; Trevor Rosenthal; Hunter Harvey And I’m going tell you why that probably isn’t going to happen. Admins may or may not choose to remove the comment or block the author. The Toronto Blue Jays selected him in the first round of the 2010 MLB draft and traded him to the Mets in 2012. As for what a team might need to give up to get Syndergaard, Marc Carig offered this assessment. I keep seeing this assertion, and am not sure why it would be true. The Mets could include Edwin Diaz and shoot for a Gavin Lux, Dustin May, or Cristian Pache, but that might limit the overall package they receive compared to trading Syndergaard and Diaz separately. And please don't worry, your report will be anonymous. And Syndergaard throws his sinker most often when behind in the count or when the count is even, so we should expect the results on the pitch to be worse based on count alone. A pitcher at this level, like Ian Anderson or Luis Patiño, might have a value about $10 million less than the position player. You can flag a comment by clicking its flag icon. As was the case with Stroman, there are some discrepancies in how good Syndergaard is as a pitcher given his 4.33 ERA. Noah Syndergaard and Nine Other Mythological Heroes. Average $15.70 Marcus Stroman is a … That said, such a move probably wouldn’t make the Mets better in 2020. If the Mets don’t get the deal they deserve, I hope they just keep Thor instead of forcing a deal that empirically makes them worse, but I have little faith in this, honestly. I don’t think the Stroman return impacts the Syndergaard’s market much, if at all. Noah Seth Syndergaard (born August 29, 1992), nicknamed Thor, is an American professional baseball pitcher for the New York Mets of Major League Baseball (MLB). I think the Padres were refusing to include Gore before the Stroman deal. Of course, there’s his track record of better numbers, but recent changes to his slider indicate he might be better than his overall numbers suggest right now. To be clear, this incarnation of Syndergaard is still an excellent pitcher, but he still leaves us wanting more; Syndergaard has the physical profile and repertoire of a pitcher that teams dream about in their search for their next front-line starter. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Noah Syndergaard is one of MLB’s most super hero-like players. Today I’ll be talking about the holy one, the pitcher with arguably the filthiest repertoire, the most dominating stuff, the man who should win every single at-bat. Looking at his overall performance this season, Syndergaard has been very good, but there’s reason to believe he will be even better. Noah Seth Syndergaard graduated from Mansfield Legacy (TX) High School in 2010 ... Had the NL's fourth-best FIP (2.80, min. Median $16.00 Pitcher Spotlight: The Noah Syndergaard Flaw We’re All Ignoring. Syndergaard succeeded Garrett Richards, who led the majors in average fastball velocity in both 2014 (96.4 mph) and 2015 (95.7 mph). Any other changes a fresh start provides are likely to be icing on the cake. Ottobot Ep 39: April Mailbag | 2021 Blue+White Ottoneu T-shirts, Positions Normally, losing one of the game’s most exciting 20-something pitchers to Tommy John would create a splash on the level of Dan-doing-a-cannonball-into-a-kiddie-pool. Average $17.31 3. 7/12/2019 - Alfonso Tusa. FanGraphs Points Updated: Saturday, May 8, 2021 8:48 AM ET, Park Factors Both have had injury concerns as well. Let’s take a look at Syndergaard’s value right now based on projections. We have updated the graphs on our player pages that have been a part of the site since FanGraphs was founded in 2005. Syndergaard was the 38th overall selection in the 2010 draft by the Toronto Blue Jays. If the Mets wanted a better prospect than the players above to headline the deal, a 60 FV player would be worth roughly equivalent to Syndergaard in value; unless there is a real premium on this season, it’s hard to come up with a realistic package outside of a one-for-one deal, which is becoming incredibly rare. After seemingly taking advantage of Miami’s fire sale to acquire Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, and Jose Reyes, they parted with top prospects Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud in order to nab NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey from the Mets, and rounded out their offseason by inking NL batting champ and All-Star game MVP Melky Cabrera to a two-year, $16-million contract. If Stroman didn’t even fetch an FV50, it’s harder to make the case that market value for Syndergaard is an FV55. In theory it should not impact the Syndergaard return, but it looks like the Padres have already refused to include Mackenzie Gore in discussions with the justification that the Stroman deal didn’t include a top-100 prospect. Noah Syndergaard; Luis Severino; Carlos Carrasco; Mike Soroka; James Paxton; Miles Mikolas; Nate Pearson; Tejay Antone; Framber Valdez; Forrest Whitley; Relief Pitchers. Nobody disputes that Sydergaard was an ace for the Mets back in 2016 when he put up a six-win season with a 2.29 FIP and 2.60 ERA. Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards. For one game, earlier this season, Noah Synergaard took us back to another time. Noah Syndergaard’s strikeout rate has been in decline over the past few seasons. If the Mets are interested in dealing Syndergaard, the team is right to ask for a very good return, and a better one than the one they just gave the Blue Jays for Stroman. by Retrosheet. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Website admin will know that you reported it. With Noah Syndergaard trade rumors whirling around the baseball world, it is fair to ponder how a team who would acquire him could improve upon his 2019 results. Noah Syndergaard himself, in 2016. Official statement on Noah Syndergaard. (via slgckgc) A man stands alone on the top of a hill. A jolt of bad news Tuesday shifted the National League East this year and beyond.New York Mets starter Noah Syndergaard has a torn ulnar collateral ligament and will undergo Tommy John surgery, the team announced. I was excited for the thought of adding Syndergaard to the Astros when I … by Dan Szymborski. by Neil Weinberg. He may not be back on a major-league mound until the All-Star break in 2021.It’s devastating news for the Mets. February 9, 2021. For the sake of this exercise, we’ll assume that a win on the open market is worth $9 million this year, with half a million dollar increases in the next two seasons. Median $15.00 Noah Syndergaard NYM SP R $14 60IL: March 6, 2021 5:51 PM : Region Rats: Clayton Kershaw LAD SP L $36 : Winnetka Cubs: Noah Syndergaard NYM SP R $18 60IL: March 4, 2021 10:43 AM : Dodger Dawgs: Noah Syndergaard NYM SP R $16 60IL Carlos Correa HOU SS R $18 Matt Olson OAK 1B L $12 Ian Happ CHC 2B/3B/OF S $12 : Down by the Schoolyard Average $17.59 Syndergaard is making $6 million this season; we’ll assume he makes $10 million and $15 million the following two years, respectively. He used to sport a 10+ K/9 rate, but it has hovered closer to 9 K/9 in recent years. Noah Syndergaard. There’s a fairy simple explanation for that disparity, and for the gap between Syndergaard’s FIP and ERA throughout his career. Given that hitters are more valuable than pitchers at that level, here are the 55 FV position players who might interest the Mets. Noah Syndergaard NYM SP R $22 60IL Brandon Marsh LAA (AA) OF L $7: December 22, 2020 7:57 PM : AcunaMatata: Noah Syndergaard NYM SP R $33 60IL: Everybody Loves Ramon : David Dahl TEX OF L $10 : December 13, 2020 11:01 PM : The Musial Suspects: Noah Syndergaard NYM SP R $20 60IL: TrimMaster5000: Dylan Moore SEA 2B/SS/3B/OF R $7 With the relative dearth of impact arms on the market and the decreasing likelihood of a Madison Bumgarner deal, Syndergaard could be the biggest name and best pitcher to change teams this week, even including the recently acquired Stroman. ATC is projecting the same skill set as last year for Thor, but we are hoping for a bit more luck. If the Mets are seeking a top-30 prospect, that basically equates to a 55 FV when we look at THE BOARD. 30Day Average $12.70 Jon Gray has a lot to live up to, and luckily for the Rockies, he’ll attempt to do so tonight, as they look to get closer to clinching their spot in the Wild Card Game—a game that Jon Gray is lined up to pitch. After his injury troubles culminated with Tommy John surgery forcing him to miss the entire 2020 season, Noah Syndergaard and the Mets are at a crossroads. For projections, we’ll use Depth Charts for the rest of the season and the ZiPS three-year projections for the 2020 and 2021: For some teams, we could bump up the value of this year’s WAR, given how valuable an extra win or two might be for teams that know they need that extra win to make the postseason, or that could potentially use Syndergaard in a wild card game or short playoff series. After is appeared the Mets put some more eggs in their 2020 basket by trading for Marcus Stroman, there now seems to be a pretty distinct possibility that the club is merely moving eggs around as it attempts to deal Noah Syndergaard. In 2018, despite missing more than a month with a finger injury and a little bit of time with hand, foot, and mouth disease, Syndergaard was still one of the best pitchers in the game, posting a four-win season, a 2.80 FIP and 3.03 ERA. The sinker is also a good setup pitch for both his change and his slider, which both get very good results. The Padres and Astros are right up there at the top with the type of prospect the Mets are interested in. Thor is in a different class of pitcher than Stroman with more team control and more upside. Fangraphs. Syndergaard is a very good pitcher and a better defense alone would be enough to get him much better results on the run-prevention side. by Zach Levine February 8, 2021. The location of his slider of late looks much more like 2016 and 2018 than in the first half: Using a fastball that averaged over 97 mph -- the highest ever recorded for a starting pitcher in a season with a minimum of 100 IP (according to FanGraphs) -- a curveball, a changeup, and a rarely-used slider, Syndergaard struck batters out at a 27.5% clip while issuing … SP Funny, but jokes aside, even with these three pitches, Syndergaard hasn’t yet been the definitive “best pitcher in baseball.” There is a problem here, a flaw that is holding him back and it’s about time we talked about it. There’s also something to be said for Syndergaard changing his pitch mix and moving away from his sinker and to his better offerings, but keep in mind that before this season, Syndergaard had good results on his sinker, and the Mets defense has likely made the results worse than with an average defense. As for the results, Syndergaard was getting just 15% swings and misses on sliders in the first half; through three games in the second half, he’s more than doubled that mark to 31%: These numbers come with the usual small sample caveats (part of that sample was also against the Marlins, who hit like a defense-first fourth outfielder), but the results are still pretty encouraging. 98.83% 0.88%. And Richards followed in … All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Flip side, they just cornered the market. 0% Util, All Leagues FanGraphs Points Keep seeing this assertion, and Cardinals present other options control and more upside valuable than pitchers at that,! More valuable than pitchers at that level, here are the 55 FV when we look at BOARD... Flag a comment by clicking its flag icon either comes in last or is tied for last every! S most super hero-like players draft and traded him to the Mets better in 2020 Index... 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