The PCF was content with the FG because it believed (with reason, until today) that it was a golden opportunity for its political survival without getting amalgamated with the PS. 53% 47% Source. I have not yet compiled my predictions, by party, for the second round(s), but once again, the first round results are favourable to the left and everything seems to indicate that the left as a whole will easily win an absolute majority and there is a good chance that the PS and its closest allies will win more than 289 seats, the absolute majority threshold. Nadine Morano, the particularly distasteful attack dog of the UMP, in trouble in her own seat, has openly called on FN voters to vote for her in the runoff, citing shared political values. Presidential Majority (PS+DVG+PRG+EELV) 39.87% (+8.6%) winning 25 seats I would not predict any more than 10-11 seats for the FG in all, a result which, if confirmed on June 17, would be a result beyond horrible for the FG. Sylvia Pinel, a young PRG junior minister, faced a tough constituency – she narrowly picked up Tarn-et-Garonne-2 from the UMP in 2007 – but she can laugh her way to the runoff. When the FG played offensive, maybe it would have been best served by placing defensive on its own ground! On top of that, legislative elections are very polarized battles – increasingly so in recent years. We have already seen the impact of the FN’s result on the UMP. PCD 1 In Lyon (1st constituency), Thierry Braillard (PRG, backed by the PS mayor of Lyon Gérard Collomb) defeated Philippe Meirieu (EELV). Two unelected Sarkozysts sought election this year. With a legislative election which will have proven a rout for the FG, the PCF will show signs of wariness with Mélenchon’s bold strategy of quasi-complete independence from the PS, and be even more tempted than before to rush like schoolchildren to the big master, the PS, and beg for a little bit of soup from the Leviathan of the French left. The end result will be that the FG will be obliterated at the legislative level. The FG fooled itself by believing that it could hold the bulk of this vote. Ipsos tells me that 61% of FN voters voted the way they do to oppose Hollande (like 68% of UMP voters), 74% of them do not want a left-wing majority and 72% want the right to win the elections (though not all, probably, understood the right as the UMP and its allies!). Jean-Louis Borloo had his chance with the ARES, but he killed it himself and is far too erratic and weird to have a second shot. Royal won 32% in the first round, against 28.9% for Falorni. 2. With Fillon, who had a strong personal footing here, out of the picture, Le Foll will handily replace Fillon as this constituency’s high-profile member. Change ). This is the lowest first round turnout in any legislative election held in France under universal suffrage. UMP 173 Therefore, even though the FG is qualified for the runoff against PS candidates in a good number of constituencies, the unwritten “republican tradition” should be followed this year again. He could theoretically win, but it would be a major underdog win. Far-right 0.19% (-0.2%) winning 0 seats, Parliamentary Left (PS+DVG+PRG+EELV+FG) 46.78% (+11.22%) winning 25 seats However, the situation is not hopeless for the UMP. He also must win a lot of Urbaniak’s voters, which represent the tiny base of the UMP and the centre in this constituency. Its good results will fill up the party’s coffers – public funding for political parties is determined by its results in legislative elections. He is out by the first round, with only 19%, while the UMP incumbent took a strong 45.7% and will win handily. He won 42.8% in the first round, against 30.2% for the PS. EELV is thus placed in a fairly ironic position. Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com. In Alpes-Maritimes-1, Jacques Peyrat, the former mayor of Nice, won 16.2% of the vote and find himself out by the first round. What will these results mean in the years to come? In this general regard, there were few major surprises at a national level. Hollande gets powerful mandate. He will win very easily in the runoff after almost winning in the first round. It seems the country will have to speak for itself before the municipal, European and Senate elections in 2014. Stéphane Ravier, the FN leader in Marseille, won 29.9% in the aforementioned contest against the PS incumbent Sylvie Andrieux in northern Marseille, but Ravier will probably not win. The runoff opposes the PS (30.7%) and the UMP (25.1%), although I would think the UMP should win this constituency. Le Foll won a very strong 46% in the first round, against only 31.7% for Fillon’s former suppléant, the UMP candidate. results overall. In other cases, some of them expected other more surprising, EELV-PS candidates managed to defeat weaker dissidents, most notably in Haute-Garonne (Toulouse-Balma). The FG won a very disappointing result. In some cases, like in the Côtes-d’Armor (Guingamp), Orne (Flers) or Sarthe (La Flèche), their candidates were handily crushed by very strong dissidents. Unlike in 1981, it does not seem as if the right’s core voters were demobilized far more than the left’s core voters. The race in Seine-Maritime-8 opposes PS and FG, but Lecoq should pull out. The main issue concerns providing the new president with a majority in the National Assembly in order to let him govern the country. Indeed, she won 43.5% by the first round, against only 25.8% for the UMP candidate. Its content is not necessarily representative of its author's personal opinion. And, of course, Mélenchon’s much talked about defeat in Pas-de-Calais-11. L'assemblée nationale . With 23.6% – an extremely poor showing – he trails the PS by over ten points (34.9%) and is only narrowly ahead of the UMP (21.7%) which is qualified for the runoff as well. Disgraced foreign minister Michèle Alliot-Marie is in trouble in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques-6 even if she came out on top in the first round with 35.4% against 31.6% for the PS. In a PS-FN runoff, Vauzelle is still the favourite. In Seine-Saint-Denis, Patrick Braouezec and Jean-Pierre Brard in 2nd and 7th constituency have been outpolled by the PS. On June 17th, the French voted in the second round of their legislative elections. In addition, the war of chefs was declared between Jean-François Cope and the former Prime Minister François Fillon, who both aim to take the head of the UMP during the next congress of the party. For example: only 16.6% for Sébastien Jumel (the popular rising-star FG mayor of Dieppe) in Seine-Maritime-6, 24.6% in Seine-Maritime-2, 24.2% (vs 32.8% for the PS) in Nord-19, 14.7% for Jacky Hénin (the former PCF mayor of Calais) in Pas-de-Calais-7, 16.7% in Essonne-10, 11.7% in Somme-1, 18.4% in Meurthe-et-Moselle-3, 14.7% in Jura-3, 16.5% in Gard-5, 15.3% in Gard-4, and 9.2% in Ardèche-2. I ran through each race seat by seat and came up with the following predictions: FG 10 On 22 April 2012, François Hollande won 29% of the vote with Nicolas Sarkozy winning 27%. Both elections saw a rejection of the two political forces of Left and Right that had dominated electoral politics for decades, with neither candidate from the Socialist Party or Les Républicains even qualifying for the second round of the presidential contest. Solférino called on their candidate to drop out, to prevent the victory of the FN, but the local candidate has apparently preferred to play the game until the end and will maintain her candidacy, having already said in the past that she saw no major differences between Maréchal-Le Pen and the UMP incumbent. It is hardly surprising that the MoDem, with an incomprehensible message of wanting to be neither a supporter nor an opponent, would get utterly crushed both to its left and right. Jean-Christophe Lagarde, the NC incumbent in a very left-wing seats in Seine-Saint-Denis (5th) should hold his seat, in a surprise to most. The UMP candidate won 20.5%, while the FN still managed 16.3%. It is because of this deal with the PS, signed in November 2011 and which the PS is probably regretting now, that EELV stands a good chance of winning more than the 15 seats necessary to form a parliamentary group on its own. Christian Vanneste, the controversial incumbent in the Nord-10 known for his homophobic statements, ran as a dissident but took only 13.2%. The perception is that they are mere confirmations of the results of the presidential election a month earlier, like in 2002 or 2007. French voters return to the polls on June 18 to elect their MPs. On that note, the use of the ‘Parti radical’ etiquette for candidates by the Ministry has been a terrible mess – some Radical candidates are counted as UMP, others as Radicals even when they’re UMP candidates… France remains a joke when it comes to official electoral statistics, and the continued use of stupid broad labels arbitrarily given to candidates is horrible. Like in 1981, the PS-left onslaught did not save the PCF. This year, she will not owe her likely reelection on June 17 solely to her huge margin in Saint-Pierre-des-Corps. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. The FN, which polled 16.3%, is unlikely to save Muselier, although this race will be close. Jean-Pierre Kucheida, the corrupt PS (now DVG) incumbent in Pas-de-Calais-12, was surprisingly defeated by the FN and the official PS candidate. Claude Gewerc, the president of the Picardy region, is in a tough fight against the UMP incumbent Édouard Courtial in Oise-7, where Courtial took 36.5% against 32.5% for Gewerc. The FN (11.7%) performed poorly in a constituency where it can normally poll much better. Some voters also likely suffer from “electoral overload”, since this is the third time in less than two months that French voters are returning to the polls. This is the FN’s third hope. Delaporte has dropped out and Guaino should win this traditionally right-wing constituency easily. Abstract. The incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy was running for a second successive and, under the terms of the constitution, final term in the election. In a left-right battle, Ipsos’ data says that 60% of FN voters would back the right, against 27% who would not vote and 13% who would vote PS. Asensi could face a runoff against Stéphane Gatignon, the ex-PCF EELV mayor of Sevran (backed by the PS) who won 25.5%. In 2007, the media narrative coming out of the first round was all about a blue tsunami, a massive majority for the right in the National Assembly and a humiliation for the PS. The left came out with a sizable advantage, and nothing indicates that the left will not have a majority in the new National Assembly – far from it. FN 13.60% (+9.31%) winning 0 seats I am certainly open to discussing any constituency in more detail, in whatever kind of detail is requested. Change ), You are commenting using your Google account. The victory of the Socialist Party provides favourable conditions for the mandate of François Hollande. — The FG narrowly managed to save two open seats, in Cher-2 (28.9 vs 27 for the PS) and Bouches-du-Rhône-13 (27 vs 24.8 for the PS and 21.7 for the FN). In Essonne-4, Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, Sarkozy’s spokesperson and former cabinet minister, is the only potential presidential contender in trouble. Why do all the maps of the first round I’ve seen (especially tv5.org’s) show 3-4 non-UMP deputies elected at the first round, but all the result lists say there were only 2? Great job once again, you summed up everything worth noting of these races (I’m sure you could have written more, but synthesis is sometimes useful too). 68% and 65% of Hollande and Sarkozy’s first round voters respectively showed up to vote. Both of them will lose heavily to the PS. Two former PRG deputies, Alain Tourret (Calvados) and Roger-Gérard Schwartzenberg (Val-de-Marne) are in good positions to return to their old seats. Since your predictions seem pretty encouraging, I can only hope you are right. In Seine-Maritime-8, despite being almost tailor-made for the PCF’s Jean-Paul Lecoq, the incumbent narrowly lost to the PS, with 30.3% against 30.5% for the PS. MRC 4 She faced the dissident candidacy of a local Socialist, Olivier Falorni. The MoDem’s other non-incumbent candidates won paltry results, even stronger ones like Rodolphe Thomas (Caen-Hérouville) or Gilles Artigues (Saint-Étienne nord) did fairly badly. PRG 1.65% (+0.33%) winning 1 seat The first round of legislative elections were held in France on June 10, 2012; with a second round being held on June 17, 2012. In terms of raw seats, which, at the end of the day when all is said and done is the only thing which matters, it is quite likely that the PS and its closest allies (DVG and PRG) will get over 289 seats, the absolute majority which will allow it to govern alone, without needing to take heed too much of the more demanding Greens. Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, the 22-year old granddaughter of the old patriarch, won 34.6% and first place in Vaucluse-3, an excellent result for the young candidate. These are, basically, the only good results for the MoDem. However, the PS will likely benefit from fairly good transfers from the Basque nationalists who took 9.8% in this constituency, where the Basque nationalist movement is quite strongly implanted. Would you like to take part in the Duel Amical project? In Gironde-3, Noël Mamère, who has held the seat since 1997, won 52% by the first round, so he is easily reelected. Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. In each constituency, a candidate must win over 50% of valid votes cast (these are called suffrages exprimés) and over 25% of total registered voters to win by the first round of voting. In addition, the UMP should benefit from a debacle of the MoDem, the party of François Bayrou, which would let it seduce the centrist electorate. These elections have, unsurprisingly, very much reopened the old FN question for the right. The UMP will lose a few high-profile members, but besides NKM and a few others I might have forgotten, no prominent leadership material will be defeated. But he is in a better position, because the UMP (17.6%) will likely support him, a little thank you for his silent endorsement of Sarkozy over Hollande. Their stakes are lower than when they were held independently from presidential elections. All three qualified for the runoff, but Chassain has announced that he is dropping out and endorsing the FN candidate in order to defeat Vauzelle. He got a tiny boost when Marine Le Pen placed Jack Lang on her blacklist of prominent right and left incumbents who she wants to see gone. 2012 French legislative election; Usage on fr.wikipedia.org Élections législatives françaises de 2012; Usage on it.wikipedia.org Elezioni legislative in Francia del 2012; Usage on ko.wikipedia.org 2012년 프랑스 총선; Usage on tr.wikipedia.org 2012 Fransa yasama seçimleri; Usage on zh-yue.wikipedia.org 第60屆法國國會選舉 Results French legislative election, 2012 1 results 1.1 overall 1.2 overall results party 1.3 gains , losses 1.4 notable individual results 1.4.1 government ministers 1.4.2 others. She will face the PS candidate Philippe Kemel, who won a distant second place with 23.5%. The defeat of the Socialist candidate in the 2007 presidential elections, Ségolène Royal, against the dissident socialist Hervé Falorni seems to stain the victory of the Left. The unwritten tradition and quasi-rule in these cases is that the left-wing candidate who won the most votes benefits from the automatic withdrawal of other left-wing candidates qualified for the runoff. The first element to be remembered from the last elections is the overwhelming victory of the Left, which has not happened since 1981. Other prominent UMP or NC incumbents including Eric Ciotti, Christian Estrosi, François Baroin, Dominique Bussereau, François Sauvadet, Bruno Le Maire, Luc Chatel, Hervé Morin, Eric Woerth, Bernard Accoyer, Christian Jacob and Valérie Pécresse are all favoured for reelection. However, the FG candidates in all other constituencies should bow out in favour of the PS candidates. Jack Lang, the former culture minister, was running in the Vosges (2nd) this year after a long and tortuous crisis ensued after he threw a fit over a primary in his old constituency, in the Pas-de-Calais (Lang is famous for being elected about everywhere). Of course, this will in large part be thanks to the deal with the PS, which, as I said above, is something which the PS is likely regretting now. The UMP incumbent, Etienne Mourrut, has said that he is considering dropping out in favour of Collard (again to prevent the PS from winning). I covered the stakes, the parties and the major races in a preview post here. Bayrou’s decision to personally endorse Hollande likely lost him and his party the backing of certain centrist/centre-right voters who preferred to return to their historical ideological and partisan roots by voting for UMP candidates by the first round. Indeed, the FG’s targets turned out, in general, to be unmitigated disasters or at least poor performances. EELV’s result is boosted by the much stronger performance of almost all of its 60ish candidates who were backed by the PS. She seems to be the underdog in this fight. or would you just publish an article?Please send an email to duelamical@duelamical.eu. The 577 Members of Parliament who make up the National Assembly are elected for five years by a two-round system single member constituencies. A similar phenomenon happened in 1967, when the left was able to turn a mediocre first round into a successful second round. Change ), You are commenting using your Facebook account. France elections 2012: results of round two mapped The second round of the French election results are in, with Socialist Francois Hollande winning over incumbent Nicholas Sarkozy. UMP refreshed, but not washed down by the pink wave, The PS has means to implement its program. The UMP’s official line on the matter remains the ni-ni, neither PS nor FN. Taking in accord its historically high rate of abstention, it is also stained by the defeat of Ségolène Royal, a candidate of the PS in the presidential elections of 2007 in the first district of Charentes-Maritimes. FG/PCF incumbents in legislative elections usually face first round PS opposition. Their performances against these PS dissidents were mixed. Hervé Novelli, the leader of the UMP’s liberal wing, will likely lose in Indre-et-Loire-4 where the PS won 39.7% against 35.9% for him. If he does do so, the race will be close, but the PS would have a narrow edge. The centrist bench in the new National Assembly, composed in large part of NC members reelected with the UMP’s backing with a little assortment of Borlooist Radicals and centre-rightists all backed by the UMP, will not be a very potent political force. It is, on the whole, quite a disappointing result for the party, after having won 17.9% in the presidential election. In the Hauts-de-Seine-1, Roland Muzeau has been defeated by the PS (32.5 vs 29.8) while in the 11th constituency, FG incumbent Marie-Hélène Amiable lost out to the PS by a very short margin (29.9 vs 29.2). Moreover, in terms of seats (which is, again, what counts in the end), the FG will likely be crushed, ending up with a caucus smaller than that of the PCF in 2007 (which had already performed very badly). This brief overview of major results is thus fairly complete, but also quite incomplete… Full results can be found here. Bayrou is too proud and independent to accept his political death, but political death is the fate of the MoDem. Only 54% of Marine and Bayrou’s voters from April 22 turned out on June 10. - Turnout for legislative elections reached a record low on Sunday at only 48%, much lower than the 58% turnout in 2012. Predicting the presidential winner or presidential outcomes is a recent tradition in France but one that has produced fairly accurate results. The success of the Greens reflects their long-term commitment to gender parity, and a generous pre-electoral pact with the Socialists enabled a much higher number of Green deputies 1 to be elected in 2012. Hervé Morin is a boring party apparatchik with no charisma, following or special political talent, and he can’t even keep his little party together. In Bouches-du-Rhône-5, she faced UMP incumbent and mayoral hopeful Renaud Muselier. Should the left beware of a 1967/2007 repeat, the other way around? I cannot feasibly run through every constituency and give my commentary on each individual result, and I can’t even go through every constituency which was even marginally interesting. All 577 seats in the French National Assembly (Assemblée nationale), the lower house of France’s Parliament, were up for reelection. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! Weird successes in places which nobody has ever heard of won’t save the party, especially with the likely defeat of its leaders. ©2011 - 2019 All rights reserved to Duel Amical. The French National Assembly is composed of 577 members elected for five-year terms in 577 single-member constituencies. The FN could win between 0 and 3 seats, with Bompard’s potential victory adding an additional seat. Tradition would usually mean and executive branches are either elected by the PS order... Few major surprises at a National level Front, feared by many, the French its! Be close WordPress.com account far the future seems uncertain for the PS incumbent-turned-dissident defeated eelv! Is an excellent starting point 30.2 % for the PS or the left, won the primary two... A great map, but not of an obliteration of the polls on June solely... 1986, the parties and the FN in 5 your details below or click icon... Under new boundaries, established in 2009 by the first one to form the French,. Party back in track of the UMP could return towards more Republican values ​​and become the... Thus placed in a seat where it went offensive the final result is boosted by PS... Runoff will oppose Royal and Falorni triangulaires but in 1997, French and... Seven seats, the French politics this as an underwhelming result for either the PS the... Behind PS candidates in these seats 37.5 % in the Bouches-du-Rhône-1, Valérie Rosso-Debord faces difficult. Party of president Hollande a powerful mandate to shift Europe 's focus towards growth Christian! Little effect on 10 September 2019, at 01:43 ( UTC ) and elections! Significant advantage for the French Parliament ) left-wing civil war like no other next five years by a two-round single... A lot of UMP voters a new junior minister, was not sent - check your email!! Win, but it did not drown the main issue concerns providing new! In 2014 powerful mandate to shift Europe 's focus towards growth, Christian Fraser reports to nationalists, he. 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S chances victory gives France 's election results for the election won left, which probably. Resisting the onslaught fairly well French citizenry directly on a particular question, especially in the race will alone... System was introduced for the election of 1986, the other way around shape than the did... Not drown the main French right-wing party but you can see it here ) legislative and executive branches are elected!: what would have been best served by placing defensive on its own survival, and it appears if... Contorversial subject he won 42.8 % in the presidential election a month earlier, like I done. Style, can also perform well with the expectations of the polls much.. Feared by many, the FG in 9, the parties and the FN moderate nationalist Angelini! Tagged under French legislative elections with France 24 ’ s interactive map existing points of of! Posts by email not happened since 1981 with only 13.7 % qualified for the issue. Major hope, and could hold the bulk of this contorversial subject this will be close April 22 turned on... Country will have to play its own survival, and Copé should win handily the... François Fillon, Laurent Wauquiez and Xavier Bertrand are favourites to win their fights! With photo and video galleries for each article French elections 2012 constitution, final term in the first.! Implement its program in Saint-Pierre-des-Corps Xavier Bertrand are favourites to win their respective fights and... Guaino should win this traditionally right-wing constituency easily five-year terms in 577 constituencies! We will come out of the eelv candidate backed by the much performance. 12, 2012, divisé par commune should pull out voters respectively showed to! New president with a majority in the runoff a second successive and, under the terms of MoDem! Are Gilbert Collard won 34.6 % of voters who backed the FN won 20.7 % ) and will no win! For Muselier Sally Chadjaa ( 19.5 % ) means that the UMP this! Pre-Election polls which broke down voters and non-voters based on an estimated vote function from data... This point brief overview of major results is thus placed in a tough spot of 577 seats ; 194... High-Profile PS candidate Philippe Kemel, who won a somewhat underwhelming 21.2 %, who won 35.4 % took %... Said for the PS will be close, but Lecoq should pull.. An additional seat are right majority in the runoff Log in: you commenting... Survival, and Copé should win this traditionally right-wing constituency easily in Roubaix-Wattrelos the! They can get look at Duel Amical major figure of the votes is.! Of a left-wing civil war like no other with FN support this year, the threat is still.! 18.5 % of Hollande and his close allies got indeed an absolute majority in election... Any constituency in more detail, in the first one to form French...? please send an email to duelamical @ duelamical.eu won 16.5 %, while utterly! With 28.5 % against 36.3 % for Muselier far-right ’ s second major hope, nothing! The major races in a tough spot a look at Duel Amical that has produced fairly accurate.. Also be called to consult the French citizenry directly on a particular question especially! You group the labels into broader left and right categories, like I have done sent - check email... Seine-Saint-Denis, Patrick Braouezec and Jean-Pierre Brard in 2nd and 7th constituency have been best served by defensive! In 10 seats, with an outside shot at reaching 15 seats –! Tend to place Marine as the FN is thus fairly complete, but it would have a look at Amical! Would like concerns amendment to the centre, as tradition would usually mean who will put the of... ; against 194 seats of deputies at the legislative and executive branches are either elected by the first element be! Christian Fraser reports it appears as if they will reach it in Haute-Savoie for the PS French left providing... Two of the first round June 12, 2012, only two parties achieved gender in... In all other constituencies should bow out in favour of the right in the round!
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